Let us look together at the first studies and analyses of the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the Italian NRP.
A constantly evolving construction site
Our column devoted to PNRR and Recovery Instrument is constantly being updated, with new articles and analysis, but the developments in this area are really continuous and fast. After all, speed is one of the characteristics of this instrument, the funds for which must be committed by the end of next year.
In this new article we take up some analysis of the impact of this new and in many ways unique tool. Impact is one of the most critical and discussed aspects in the NRP debate. On the one hand, it offers a unique opportunity and substantial resources. Sources attributable to it will provide more than half of the European funds earmarked for Italy in this seven-year period, thus doubling the allocation of European funds provided in normal times. On the other hand, this instrument is characterized by. timing and implementation methods that require a change of pace and mindset in the use of European funds.
How much will really be left for Italian and European citizens through the deployment of this major initiative?
We answer this question through the first estimates, data and analyses, which approach this topic from different points of view and allow us to gain a more concrete view of what the NRP has achieved in our territories, currently and in the future.
The European Commission’s programmatic estimates (by macro-area)
The European Commission’s estimates indicate that by 2026 Italy’s NRP will increase gross domestic product from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent, bringing up to 240,000 people into the workforce. Along with other aspects, identify the following elements as the most characterizing ones in terms of impact for the Italian NRP.
Impact on “green transition”:
- energy efficiency of buildings through tax incentives and direct investment in renovations of public buildings, schools, courts, hotels, museums, cinemas and theaters;
- better competition in electricity and gas markets, promotion of renewable energy sources, offshore power generation and smart power grids;
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport, with investments in sustainable urban mobility and rail infrastructure;
- better water and wastewater management (supply protection and leakage reduction), biodiversity protection (reforestation and restoration of natural and marine areas), and new strategy for circular economy;
- investment to modernize waste management facilities and build new ones.
Impact on “digital transition”:
- Investment in enterprise digitization and incentives for the digitization of production systems;
- Support for networks for collaboration in research and development and technology transfer between universities, research institutes and enterprises;
- investment in the completion of ultrafast broadband networks and 5G connectivity;
- Digitization of public administration, health services, education and justice;
- training investments in digital skills for general population, people at risk of digital exclusion, teachers, civil servants and workforce.
Impact on economic and social situation:
- Improving the effectiveness of public administration, including the education system (from kindergartens to universities) and judiciary (length of court proceedings and court reorganization);
- promotion of innovation competitiveness and an enabling environment for business and investment (barriers to entry, simplification of public procurement and regulatory and administrative aspects);
- strengthening of active labor market policies, skills and employability (with special attention to vulnerable groups), strengthening of public services and social housing (especially for people with disabilities, youth and the elderly);
- Reducing North-South spatial and infrastructure disparities (broadband, high-speed and regional railways, ports, waste and water management);
- Strengthening the health care system in terms of coverage, adequacy, sustainability, response to aging, research development, and therapeutic and technological innovation.
The programmatic estimates of the Ministry of Finance (by mission).
The Ministry of Finance estimates indicate a GDP impact of 3.6 percent by 2026 and provide the following details on some of the most important specific impacts of the NRP in each of the six Missions.
Mission 1 (digitalization, innovation, competitiveness, culture):
- 100% of people connected by 2026;
- fast connections for 8.5 million households and businesses, an additional 9,000 schools, and an additional 12,000 NHS centers;
- Digital approach to the revitalization of tourism and culture.
Mission 2 (green revolution and ecological transition):
- Improved waste recycling (+55% on electrical material, +85% on paper, +65% on plastics, +100% on textile material);
- Reduction of drinking water losses on water networks;
- additional 50,000 more eco-efficient public and private buildings for a total of 20 million square meters of more eco-efficient buildings;
- Support for research on the use of hydrogen in industry and transportation.
Mission 3 (sustainable mobility infrastructure):
- Adaptation and upgrading of regional rail networks;
- reduced times on rail lines (by 1h20 on Rome-Pescara, 1h30 on Naples-Bari, 1h on Palermo-Catania and 1h on Salerno-Reggio Calabria);
- investments in “green ports.”
Mission 4 (education and research):
- 228,000 new kindergartens for children aged 0-6 years;
- 100,000 classrooms transformed into connected learning environments;
- school renovations totaling 2.4 million square meters;
- Wiring of 40,000 school buildings;
- 6,000 new PhDs starting in 2021.
Mission 5 (Inclusion and Cohesion):
- National program to ensure the employability of workers (GOL);
- Support for women’s enterprises through the Women’s Enterprise Fund;
- Increased support for vulnerable, dependent or disabled people;
- Infrastructure investments for Special Economic Zones.
Mission 6 (health):
- 1,288 community houses and 381 community hospitals for community-based health care;
- Home care for 10 percent of people aged 65 and older;
- 602 new Local Operations Centers for telehealth;
- More than 3,133 new large-scale diagnostic and treatment equipment.
OpenPolis NRP Observatory’s analyses (by sector).
To these already very concrete data can be added the thematic analyses carried out by the PNRR Observatory of OpenPolis . These are analyses done periodically on various subject areas, so they will be enriched and updated over time. We propose below some of the most recent and interesting ones already available, still mainly referring to a forecast calculation rather than a real impact assessment.
- 216 new educational institutions, corresponding to about 410,000 square meters of building stock and a total allocated amount of 1.19 billion euros;
- is planned renovation and securing of 2.4 million square meters of school building stock, with a total allocated amount of 3.9 billion euros;
- 10.57 billion is earmarked for the “qualitative improvement and quantitative expansion of the education and training services“: extension of full-time education, increase of canteen service, enhancement of sports facilities in schools, improvement of digital education and teacher recruitment and training processes.
- the logistics in agriculture benefits from more than 2 billion euros, with integrated investment programs, supply chain and district contracts and the strengthening of relationships along the production, processing and marketing chains;
- 1.5 billion measure supports theenergy efficiency and the production of renewable energy in agriculture, avoiding the consumption of new land (energy insulation, ventilation, cooling and flow management systems, solar panels and storage);
- An €880 million measure addresses the efficiency of irrigation systems through innovative and digital infrastructure (meters and remote control systems);
- A 500 million euro measure supports the modernization of the fleet vehicles, the introduction of innovative alternative solutions to the use of pesticides, and the modernization of food processing, storage, and packaging.
NRP and urban development
Many of the NRP investments fund aspects of particular practical relevance to urban development. For example:
- 1.9 billion was allocated for the refueling of means of public transport with low emissions for our country’s urban centers (mainly electric and hydrogen buses for large municipalities);
- 27 million euros have been allocated for the purchase of eco-compactors , or machinery for recycling plastic bottles and packaging, which have a significant weight in urban pollution. It will benefit 712 municipalities (mostly large southern municipalities);
- More than 300 million euros have been allocated for the forestation Of Italy’s major urban centers. It is a project to build forests in the vast areas of the country’s 14 metropolitan cities, covering a total area of 6,600 hectares.
- The impact of the NRP on the employment rate, expressed in percentage points of deviation from a “without NRP” scenario over the period 2024-2026, has been estimated at +3.20 percent (and as high as +4 percent for women and +4.90 percent for young people in the South);
- The missions that make a greatest contribution to increasing employment (especially youth and women) are 1 (digitalization, innovation, competitiveness, culture and tourism), 2 (green revolution and ecological transition) and 5 (inclusion and cohesion, especially on women’s employment). The most impactful initiatives are investment in advanced technologies, increased presence of Italian companies in international markets and strengthening the tourism sector;
- There are also guidelines specifics for the labor inclusion of women, youth and people with disabilities, valid for public contracts financed with NRP resources. Thirty percent of the recruitment resulting from NRP funds is for youth and female employment.
- The ex-ante analysis of the impact of the NRP on gender aspects was elaborated in a separate document . It identifies 34 interventions with a positive impact on women’s conditions, including four with a direct impact on gender equality;
- i main interventions relate to: female labor participation (20 interventions, for 26.3 billion), asymmetry in family work in couples (10 interventions, for 17.3 billion), employment of mothers (2 interventions, for 5.6 billion), healthy life expectancy at birth (2 interventions, for 3 billion), promotion of science and technology degrees (2 interventions, for 1.4 billion), and combating housing deprivation (2 interventions, for 0.5 billion);
- The specific investments with the greatest impact are 1.1 (Plan for kindergartens and preschools and early childhood education and care services, 4.6 billion euros) and 1.2 (Plan for the extension of full-time education and canteens, 1 billion euros).
- The ex-ante analysis of the impact of the NRP on young people was elaborated in a separate document . Identifies 51 interventions with a positive and direct impact on youth conditions;
- i main interventions relate to: youth employment rate (18 interventions, for 2.2 billion), support for “NEET” youth (11 interventions, for 9.4 billion), combating school dropout (8 interventions, for 1.7 billion), combating deprivation (4 interventions, for 9.3 billion), participation in local social life (4 interventions, for 0.7 billion), numerical skills (3 interventions, 1.1 for billion) and parental indepedence (3 interventions, for 1 billion).
- the NRP devotes 5.74 billion euros to the culture and 2.4 billion euros to tourism, amounting to 2.4% and 1% of total resources, respectively. The main interventions in these areas are contained in the third component of Mission 1, namely “Tourism and Culture 4.0.”
- the main interventions for culture concern: “major cultural attractions” (1.5 billion), the attractiveness of villages (1 billion), the safety of places of worship (0.8 billion), the enhancement of rural architecture and landscape (0.6 billion), the digitization of cultural heritage (0.5 billion), the removal of cultural barriers in cultural buildings (0.3 billion) and their energy efficiency (0.3 billion), the enhancement of historic parks and gardens (0.3 billion) and the film industry (0.3 billion), and the training of cultural workers (0.15 billion);
- interventions in the tourism sector include the revision of the tourism code (professional order, unified professional qualification and uniform standards) and three investment items: the “digital tourism hub” (0.11 billion euros for a large national hub to digitally connect tourism supply and promotion), the tourism business competitiveness fund (1.8 billion euros, divided into various sub-funds and instruments) and “caput mundi” (0.5 billion euros to promote the impact on the sector of major events).
NRP and territorial health care :
- the NRP devotes a large allocation of resources to the construction of 1350 new community houses (2 bn, the focal point for the delivery of health care services offered to citizens, with a focus on the chronically ill) and 400 community hospitals (1 bn, facilities aimed at patients requiring low-intensity care and for short-term stays), supported organizationally by 600 territorial operations centers (0.1 bn);
- other resources are dedicated to seismic safety of hospitals (2.18 bn), digitization of emergency and admissions departments (1.45 bn) and acquisition of large healthcare equipment;
- are planned additional 2.6 billion for hospital technology and digital modernization, replacement of at least 3,100 large healthcare equipment and telemedicine.
Parliament’s “macro” analyses
Against this important and encouraging data, the European Parliament recently published a series of studies to assess the structural and long-term impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility on a number of European countries, including Italy.
Some reservations are, in this regard, expressed: “In Italy, measures to reduce youth unemployment lack detail. The same can be said of actions to reduce high regional disparities, a major challenge for the Italian economy. Doubts also arise about the absence of relevant projects in the different areas of the green transition. Finally, a medium-term plan to strengthen debt sustainability is missing.”
A concept already mentioned in other analyses and by our Guide is also taken up: “growth could be lower than expected due to low absorption capacity. […] Insufficient administrative capacity would imply an excessive amount of time needed to fully spend NRP funds, which could undermine its stabilizing role.”
The studies have a technical and academic focus and can be accessed here: General Digest of Studies ⬧ Studies for Austria, Belgium and Germany ⬧ Studies for Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Romania ⬧ Studies for France, Italy, Portugal and Spain .
ItaliaDomani’s new monitoring tools.
Since monitoring and evaluating the progress of the NRP and the Recovery and Resilience Device are key factors in ensuring its success, the ItaliaDomani reference platform has recently enriched sections dedicated to these aspects.
In particular, the platform includes a section dedicated to the progress of the implementation of the NRP , where the progress of each mission, each component and the work of each incumbent administration can be viewed.
The platform also presents a new section “ Open data catalog “, with all data and progress reports on NRP interventions and activities updated periodically. Among the most significant “datasets” are “PNRR Programming Milestones and Targets”; “PNRR Financial Framework”; “PNRR Project Location”; “PNRR Projects”; “PNRR Subjects.” This is a very significant amount of information that can be downloaded in various formats (xls, csv and json), which is useful to better understand what has been achieved as we go along under the NRP. We will reprise some of this information as part of our upcoming updates.
PNRR: a more concrete idea
This article should enable many of our readers to gain a more concrete idea of what the NRP has accomplished and will accomplish in our territories. Although it is a colossal program, touching on so many structural (and infrastructural) points of our country’s life, its results and success will be measured by very concrete achievements close to each of us.
