“Megatrends”: tools and analysis on our future

Guides and tools
EU: institutions and policiestools
Donna osserva una città futuristica illuminata, rappresentazione visiva dei megatrend globali che influenzano lo sviluppo urbano e tecnologico

29 Apr 2025

In an increasingly uncertain global environment, a great archive of the opportunities we can seize and the challenges we can face with our projects.

European projects and “Megatrends”: for a world on the move

The world is on the move: the international news is enriched daily with events and reports that provide an uncertain-if not downright gloomy-picture with respect to the world to come and the future of Europe.

European projects are one of the tools we have to respond, in our own small way, to these grand challenges. Knowing what are perceived as “Europe’s grand challenges” and keeping abreast of this debate enriches one’s civic awareness and enables one to carry out one’s projects with a broader vision.

Let’s talk today about two portals dedicated to the analysis of “Megatrends,” or the “driving forces” that will have a greater influence on our future: two great archives full of food for thought, insights and possible ideas for our projects.

The sources: the Megatrends Hub and the work of ESPAS.

In our review of “Megatrends” we refer to two main sources: the Megatrends Hub portal of Knowledge4Policy and the work ofESPAS(European Strategy and Policy Analysis System).

  1. Knowledge4Policy is the European Union platform that provides scientific analysis and tools to support European policies. It is curated by experts and scientists from across Europe and explores a wide variety of subject areas: fromartificial intelligence to behavioral sciences, from biodiversity to migration dynamics, from active citizenship to satellite observation, from frontier technologies to sustainable transition. The pages of Knowledge4Policy are full of analyses, reports, studies, publications, databases and tools, dedicated to fueling the debate on future scenarios and how to address them.One of its best-known tools is the Megatrends Hub, a portal that systematically identifies and explores 14 “Megatrends,” 14 major “driving forces” for Europe’s future, declining them in turn on more concrete and specific aspects. This portal represents a conceptual reference point on the subject at the European level 1.
  2. ESPAS’s work has less ambitions for systematicity, but has a more practical approach to informing and supporting European policies. It offers a very broad, dense, and up-to-date range of studies and research on major global trends of interest to the European Union and is the point of reference on the subject for key EU institutions. It aims to identify and analyze the key trends and challenges, and consequent policy choices, that Europe and the world as a whole will face in the decades to come.On the ESPAS website you will find in particular short periodic publications (“Horizon Scanning”) on major emerging trends, broader annual (“Global Trend Reports“) and thematic (“Foresight Papers“) reports, and a large repository of strategic studies in various fields (“ORBIS,” Open Repository Base on International Strategic Studies). Although it does not deal with “Megatrends” as such, it analyzes the same issues with depth and detail.

“Megatrend”: a message of complexity and hope.

The overall message of the “Megatrends” and these strategic analyses is both one of complexity and hope.

On the one hand, they bring out (in case we need reminding) the complexity of the dynamics of the contemporary world, emphasizing how they are closely interconnected. The analysis they propose is very multifaceted and goes beyond what are the most well-known and frequent slogans, or “buzzwords,” peculiar to European and national politics, reflecting an increasingly polarized public discourse(this isalso a “Megatrend”). While not a “new” concept (their elaboration dates back a few years), “Megatrends” bring out aspects that are increasingly evident in light of recent developments in the international context, foremost among them the importance of strategic and geostrategic aspects (and not just ideal and value aspects) in the design and implementation of European policies2.

On the other hand (no less important), “Megatrends” send a signal of hope. They help both to “identify probable futures” and to take action to “support preferable futures.” They include many difficult, negative, and problematic dynamics, but they also present many positive developments and solutions that can be counted on to build tomorrow’s world.

The 14 “Megatrends”

1. TECHNOLOGY AND HYPERCONNECTIVITY.

What it is: the growing impact of technology, data, and digital connectivity on the way we live, socialize, work, produce, and govern.

What it concerns:

2. SCARCITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES.

What it is: the increasing demand for water, food, energy, land and minerals, making natural resources increasingly scarce and expensive.

What it concerns:

3. CHANGE IN THE WORLD OF WORK.

What it is: the radical change in the nature of work, employment and career patterns, and organizational structures introduced by new generations and the extension of working life.

What it concerns:

4. CHANGING SECURITY PARADIGMS.

What it is: the changing patterns of confrontation among global actors, altering relationships, power positions, approaches and consequences of conflicts, with increasing pressure on the environment and society.

What it concerns:

5. CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION.

What it is: the continuing increase in anthropogenic pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, overexploitation and environmental degradation, with dramatic consequences for humanity.

What it concerns:

6. GROWING URBANIZATION.

What it is: the increasing movement of people from rural to urban areas around the world, with consequences in terms of sustainability, health, housing, inequality, relationships, and local organisations.

What it concerns:

7. DIVERSIFICATION OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING.

What it is: the rapid change in educational needs and modes of delivery due to generational changes, hyperconnectivity, technology and information availability.

What it concerns:

8. INCREASED INEQUALITY.

What it is: widening gaps between people and local organisations of various kinds (income, education, employment, health, gender, age, ethnicity, development and prospects) despite significant progress.

What it concerns:

9. INFLUENCE OF THE EAST AND SOUTH.

What it is: the shift of economic power from the established economies (West and Japan) to the emerging economies of the East and South.

What it concerns:

10. CONSUMPTION GROWTH.

What it is: the growth of the middle classes, or “consuming classes” around the world, impacting production and business, but also resources and the environment.

What it concerns:

11. GROWING DEMOGRAPHIC GAPS.

What it is: the rapid growth of the world’s population (nearly 10 billion in 2050) concentrated mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, with aging and stagnating populations in developed countries.

What it concerns:

12. INFLUENCE OF NEW SYSTEMS OF GOVERNMENT.

What it is: the growing impact of new actors, state and non-state, and new ways of using media, technologies and social media, on traditional systems of government and governance.

What it concerns:

13. GROWTH OF MIGRATION DYNAMICS.

What it is: the growing social and political weight of migration, with complex migration dynamics involving increasing numbers of people (the number of migrants worldwide has doubled in 30 years).

What it concerns:

14. NEW HEALTH CHALLENGES.

What it is: preventing and containing new health challenges (often with “human” causes): lifestyles, mental health, pollution, aging, bacterial resistance and new viruses, thanks to advances in science.

What it concerns:

Resources and the ESPAS 2024 report.

Since it is difficult to summarize the work of ESPAS in the space of an article, we offer below a review of the areas covered by its document archive (ORBIS), the topics covered in its latest periodic updates (Horizon Scanning) and a summary of its Global Trends 2024 report (available in Italian). There we find many commonalities with what the 14 “Megatrends” have already highlighted.

  1. Sectors covered by the ORBIS archive (by number of publications available, in descending order): Economy, Technology, Governance, Innovation, Security, Globalization, Development, Growth, Foreign Affairs, Defense, Environment, Industry, Climate Change, Politics, Sustainability, Employment, Resources, Demographics, Energy, Regions, Education, Poverty, Science, Migration, Research, Food Security, Health, Water, Agriculture, Integration, Transportation, Biodiversity, Mobility, Space.
  2. Horizon Scanning ‘s latest releases : March 2025 (Neurotechnology, Diplomatic nonimmunity, Climate manipulation and conspiracy theories); November 2024 (Ideological gender gap among youth, Deindustrialization, Family structures); March 2024 (New OPECs for new mineral resources, Unknown parts of the biosphere, Artificial moral agents); November 2023 (De-dollarization, AI-generated worlds, Manufacturing in space); June 2023 (Expansion of BRICS as an alternative to multilateralism, New sources of extreme inequality, Radical methods of food production); November 2022 (Rising costs of geopolitics, Governance of common resources, Idle citizenship); July 2022 (Chinese geopolitical narratives, Radical transparency, Right-based approach on resources and environment).Many other topics are also covered in a more condensed form in each issue.
  3. The main themes of the Global Trends 2024 report: – Geopolitics: geopolitics is shifting from cooperation to competition and conflict, with new threats such as hybrid warfare, disinformation, and struggle for supremacy in space; – Economy: geopolitical fragmentation and the transition to climate neutrality threaten economic growth, influenced by the US-China rivalry and new regional blocs; – Demographics: the European population will decline, not offset by migration flows, putting pressure on the labor market and fiscal sustainability; China’s population decline will have global repercussions; – Environment and climate: climate change is accelerating, likely exceeding the 1.5-2 °C target of the Paris Agreement, seriously affecting the EU, which must consider the international context for its climate strategy; – Energy: global energy consumption is increasing, with fossil fuels and renewables being used; the green transition is hampered by fossil infrastructure investment and critical mineral availability; – Inequalities: economic inequalities and access to education, technology, health, and climate justice are increasing, with social tensions fueling political polarization and potentially weakening democracy; – Technology: the spread of new technologies and their convergence are increasing, amid rising expectations and geopolitical rivalry, with difficulties in regulation; – Health: the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for a well-equipped health sector that will continue to drive scientific and technological innovation, addressing challenges such as antimicrobial resistance; – Lifestyles: people are increasingly living in cities, exposed to climate change; technologies are changing work and learning, creating opportunities and risks, with diverse impacts on EU regions and economic sectors; – Democracy: democracies are under attack to undermine their freedoms, with attempts to undermine elections and freedom of expression; participatory democracy and high involvement on specific issues are positive trends.

 

Notes:

[1] Many of the dynamics highlighted by “Megatrends” overlap with those that the 17 Sustainable Development Goals aim to address. “Megatrends” and Sustainable Development Goals are different conceptual frameworks, with different genesis and goals, the result of different thinking, organizations and contexts, though to some extent complementary. ⇑

[2] These aspects, as well as the dynamics highlighted by the “Megatrends,” can be kept in mind in the development of European projects and show awareness of and interest in the challenges facing European institutions. Even with all the appropriate “weights” and caution: 1) what is reported in these portals does not necessarily represent the position of the EU institutions, which instead emerges directly from official documents, policies, and strategies; 2) not all the information reported in the portals is necessarily up to date with the latest (extremely rapid) developments in the contemporary world . ⇑

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